Archive for May, 2011

No change in our weather pattern for the weekend!

May 27, 2011

Showers and unseasonable low temperatures will rule this Memorial Day long holiday. Flood warnings and watches remain posted for many areas in Montana. Travel is difficult in some parts of the state as well.

Areas of concern for the Holiday weekend

 

The two cold fronts moving eastward are still on schedule to keep us cool and wet. The good news is Tuesday, after the long holiday is over, the sunshine returns and temperatures rise into the 70’s, making it feel a lot more like spring!

I hope you have a safe and pleasant holiday weekend!

Fred

Cool, rain and high water for Memorial Day Weekend

May 26, 2011

The timing is poor for those wanting to get out for the first “unofficial” day of some, the Memorial Day Weekend. Rain and cool weather will be in the way for everyone. Flooding concerns have closed many popular camping areas as well.

Here is what we are looking at for the weekend:

NWS Graphic

Check all river levels at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tfx

Two more systems are still forecast to impact the area bringing widespread precipitation Friday/Saturday and then Sunday/Monday. Snow levels continue to stay lower than they were earlier this week and could alleviate some flooding potential by limiting the amount of rain falling on the ripe snowpack.

* Heaviest precipitation period is expected with the Sunday/Monday system.

* Worse case scenario: Precipitation totals in excess of 1 inch of liquid on the high plains with up to 2.5 inches in the mountains along the Rocky Mountain Front. Central Montana mountains could see up to 2 inches.

* Most likely scenario: Precipitation totals 0.50 to 1 inch of liquid on the high plains with 1 to 2 inches along the Rocky Mountain Front and 1 to 1.5 inches over the Central Montana mountains.

* Some precipitation is expected to fall as snow over the mountains above about 5500 feet and will not cause as much runoff as an all rain scenario.

* Reservoirs are filling up and most reservoirs along the Rocky Mountain Front are full or will be filled by late this weekend based on current inflow rates.

NWS Glasgow Graphic

Missoula NWS Graphic

The latest pre-Memorial Day weekend storm system is continuing to push across the state with the Central and Eastern areas seeing the best bet for rain with some thunderstorms also possible this afternoon and tonight. Early this morning Great Falls saw about .15″ of rain at the airport.

Flooding concerns continue over a large area of the state through the Holiday weekend, rising water, plenty of rain and cool temperatures.

Overnight mostly cloudy with a low near 40 and gusty winds with a 40% chance of rain showers.

Friday cloudy and breezy with a 50% chance of rain showers. Wind gusts near 30 mph from the southwest.

Saturday cloudy with an 80% chance or rain and thunderstorms. The high only 50 degrees and still breezy.

Sunday partly sunny with a 50/50 chance of showers and warmer with a high in the upper 50’s.

Memorial Day mostly cloudy with rain likely and a high in the upper 50’s.

By Tuesday we dry out, the sun returns and the temperature climbs to the mid and upper 60’s.

Be sure and check the road report on our website frequently and please be very careful around water this weekend. Normally small streams have turned into rivers, closing many campgrounds for the weekend as well.

Have a good evening!

Fred

WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1248 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2011

…THE FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS…

BIG HOLE RIVER NEAR MELROSE
GALLATIN RIVER NEAR LOGAN
MISSOURI RIVER NEAR ULM
.WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND…MELTING THE SNOWPACK AND CAUSING ADDITIONAL WATER IN RIVERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

TURN AROUND DON’T… DROWN. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH WATER FLOWING OVER THE ROAD.

THE LATEST STAGES AND FORECASTS FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS CAN BE FOUND AT OUR WEB PAGE…WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS

___________________________________________________

1248 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2011

…FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING…THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER AT ULM.
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING…OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 12:00 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST…THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 14.4 FEET BY
SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY EVENING.

__________________________________________________
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 AM MDT THU MAY 26 2011

BLAINE MT-CASCADE MT-CHOUTEAU MT-FERGUS MT-JUDITH BASIN MT-MEAGHER MT-
520 AM MDT THU MAY 26 2011

…THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL AT LEAST 800 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN MEAGHER…JUDITH BASIN…FERGUS…CHOUTEAU…CASCADE AND BLAINE COUNTIES…

* PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS…POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES…WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS WEEKEND. FLOODING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME WITH LITTLE OR NO DECREASE IN RIVER LEVELS EXPECTED.

* REPORTS OF FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED COUNTIES INCLUDE …BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

* IN CASCADE COUNTY…FLOODING OF BELT CREEK CONTINUES NEAR THE TOWN OF ARMINGTON. IN THE MONARCH AREA HUGHESVILLE ROAD IS CLOSED.
FLOODING ALSO CONTINUES ON THE SMITH RIVER SOUTH OF ULM. THE MISSOURI RIVER MAY SOON AFFECT LOW LYING AREAS IN THE CITY OF GREAT FALLS ALONG RIVER DRIVE SOUTH… BETWEEN THE CENTRAL AVENUE BRIDGE AND THIRD STREET SOUTH.

* IN CHOUTEAU COUNTY…FLOODING CONTINUES NEAR THE HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS…AS UPPER HIGHWOOD CREEK ROAD IS CLOSED FROM BURLEY HILL ROAD TO THAIN CAMPGROUND.

* IN FERGUS COUNTY…NUMEROUS RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS…INCLUDING BIG SPRING CREEK …BEAVER CREEK…AND COTTONWOOD CREEK. THE MISSOURI RIVER NEAR LANDUSKY REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE…AND IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

* IN JUDITH BASIN COUNTY…FLOODING ON THE JUDITH RIVER…WILLIAMS CREEK…AND ROSS FORK CREEK CONTINUES. ALSO…WATER WAS REPORTED RUNNING OVER WINDHAM-BENCHLAND ROAD…AND NEARBY SAGE CREEK WAS RUNNING VERY HIGH.

* IN BLAINE COUNTY…FLOODING IS AFFECTING LOCATIONS AROUND HAYS AND LODGE POLE.

* IN MEAGHER COUNTY…FLOODING HAS CLOSED BOTH SPRING CREEK ROAD AND NEWLAN CREEK ROAD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE…TURN AROUND…DONT DROWN.

TO REPORT FLOODING…HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

Rain as we head for the Memorial Day weekend!

May 25, 2011

Our weather week does not look good for drying out, in fact several systems are scheduled to arrive this week and weekend with more rain, and in many places the ground is so saturated that run-off has no where to go.

Here is a graphic from the National Weather Service office in Great Falls that shows the latest string of storms.

Overnight we have a chance of showers developing after midnight with a low in the mid 40’s.

While Thursday the temperature holds steady in the mid 40’s and rain likely with southwest winds gusting to near 35 mph at times. Cold and rainy!

Friday a 50/50 chance of rain showers and gusty winds near 30 mph. High temperature in the mid 50’s.

Saturday to start the holiday weekend, showers likely with a high in the mid 50’s.

Sunday partly sunny and isolated showers with a high stuck on the mid 50’s.

Memorial Day rain is again likely with another system moving in and a high in the upper 50’s.

Tuesday looks slightly warmer and a better chance of sunshine. Our weather is not looking good for camping and other Memorial weekend outdoor activities. The eastern part of the state doesn’t look any better for the weekend. Here is a graphic from the Glasgow NWS.

I hope you stay safe as you make plans for the weekend. There is flooding in many parts of the state, be aware of rapidly changing water levels!

Fred

Flood warnings for the area with rain continuing. Rain totals as well.

May 24, 2011
Here is a report on the latest 24 hour rainfall totals from
around the state:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
 930 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

 :...FULL TIME STATIONS...

 :HIGH TEMP LAST 12 HOURS THROUGH 6 PM MDT. LOW TEMP OVER PAST
 :18 HOURS...PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL PAST 24 HOURS AT 6 PM.
 :SNOW DEPTH AT 6 PM MDT. STATIONS ARE AUTOMATED AND MAY
 :UNDERESTIMATE WINTER PRECIPITATION. 

 .BR TFX 0524 M DH18/TAIRZS/TAIRZI/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ
 :                                       12HR 18HR  24-HR  24-HR  SNOW
 :ID    STATION          ELEV            HIGH  LOW   PCPN   SNFL DEPTH
 BHK  : BAKER            2929 :           49 /  46 / 0.33 /      /
 BIL  : BILLINGS AIRPORT 3567 :           56 /  51 / 2.56 /      /   0
 BZN  : BOZEMAN AIRPORT  4475 :           55 /  46 / 0.35 /      /
 BTM  : BUTTE            5700 :           48 /  41 / 0.68 /      /
 CTB  : CUT BANK         3838 :           43 /  39 / 0.23 /      /   0
 DLN  : DILLON AIRPORT   5200 :           48 /  43 / 0.79 /      /   0
 GGW  : GLASGOW          2285 :           57 /  49 / 0.08 /  0.0 /   0
 GDV  : GLENDIVE AIRPORT 2457 :           52 /  46 / 0.08 /      /
 GTF  : GREAT FALLS ARPT 3664 :           45 /  42 / 1.03 /  0.0 /   0
 HVR  : HAVRE AIRPORT    2585 :           58 /  54 / 0.01 /  0.0 /   0
 HLN  : HELENA AIRPORT   3828 :           46 /  43 / 0.45 /  0.0 /   0
 JDN  : JORDAN           2662 :           56 /  50 / 0.06 /      /
 GPI  : KALISPELL ARPT   2965 :           56 /  49 / 0.18 /  0.0 /   0
 LWT  : LEWISTOWN ARPT   4145 :           57 /  50 / 1.02 /      /   0
 LVM  : LIVINGSTON       4653 :           51 /  46 / 1.29 /      /
 MLS  : MILES CITY ARPT  2628 :           58 /  50 / 0.25 /      /
 MSO  : MISSOULA         3202 :           51 /  49 / 0.30 /  0.0 /   0
 SDY  : SIDNEY AIRPORT   1985 :           55 /  46 / 0.00 /      /
 OLF  : WOLF POINT       1980 :           54 /  49 / 0.05 /      /    

 :OTHER AWOS AND CRN LOCATIONS...NO NWS QUALITY CONTROL PERFORMED.
 BSPM8: BANNACK          5971 :           46 /  40
 GOMM8: BRUSETT 4SE      2643 :           53 /  44
 S71  : CHINOOK ARPT     2414 :           57 /  54
 CWJM8: CLEARWATER JCTN  3840 :           51 /  48 / 0.51 /      /
 M46  : COLSTRIP ARPT    3426 :           55 /  52
 CDM  : CONRAD ARPT      3545 :           45 /  41
 97M  : EKALAKA ARPT     3503 :           51 /  46
 EKS  : ENNIS ARPT       5383 :           47 /  43
 88M  : EUREKA ARPT      2668 :           61 /  50
 1S3  : FORSYTH ARPT     2727 :           55 /  52
 79S  : FORT BENTON ARPT 2869 :           54 /  52
 6S5  : HAMILTON ARPT    3642 :           52 /  46
 6S8  : LAUREL ARPT      3517 :           58 /  52
 S59  : LIBBY ARPT       2601 :           55 /  50
 GFA  : MALMSTROM AFB    3257 :           47 /  43
 M75  : MALTA ARPT       2254 :           59 /  52
 S34  : PLAINS ARPT      2467 :           54 /  51
 PO1  : POPLAR ARPT      2036 :           54 /  52
 PRSM8: POPLAR 13NE      2085 :           54 /  46
 7S0  : RONAN AIRPORT    3084 :           52 /  46
 RPX  : ROUNDUP ARPT     3485 :           56 /  52
 9S2  : SCOBEY ARPT      2432 :           56 /  44
 THM  : THOMPSON FALLS A 2467 :           52 /  48
 9S5  : THREE FORKS ARPT 4089 :           52 /  46
 7S1  : TWIN BRIDGES APT 4777 :           50 /  44
 JRWM8: UTICA 11SW       5070 :           49 /  45
 WYS  : WEST YELLOWSTONE 6644 :           41 /  36
 .END

 :...COOPERATIVE STATIONS...
 :THESE STATIONS REPORT TEMPERATURE ONCE EVERY 24 HOURS. HIGH AND
 :LOW TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND SNOWFALL FOR THE PAST 24
 :HOURS THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH TEMPERATURE COULD HAVE OCCURRED
 :YESTERDAY. SNOW DEPTH THIS EVENING.
 :THE DDHHNN GROUP IS DAY/HOUR/MINUTE OF THE OBSERVATION.

 .BR TFX 0524 M DH18/TAIRZX/TAIRZN/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ
 :...NORTHEAST MONTANA...
 :                              OBS TIME 24HR 24-HR 24-HR  24-HR  SNOW
 :ID    STATION          ELEV     DDHHNN HIGH  LOW   PCPN   SNFL DEPTH
 BNVM8: BAINVILLE 6NE    2146 : DDM     /  M /   M / 0.00 /  0.0 /   0
 FPKM8: FORT PECK POWER  2070 : DD241700/ 66 /  50 /    T /    M /   M
 GNDM8: GLENDIVE 1E      2076 : DD241400/ 68 /  47 / 0.04 /    M /   M
 MLAM8: MALTA            2262 : DD241500/ 67 /  50 / 0.25 /  0.0 /   0
 NASM8: NASHUA           2067 : DD241630/ 62 /  49 / 0.12 /    M /   M
 SDYM8: SIDNEY           1931 : DD241600/ 68 /  45 / 0.03 /    M /   M
 SMIM8: ST MARIE         2756 : DD241500/ 60 /  46 /    T /  0.0 /   0

 :...SOUTHEAST MONTANA...
 :                              OBS TIME 24HR 24-HR 24-HR  24-HR  SNOW
 :ID    STATION          ELEV     DDHHNN HIGH  LOW   PCPN   SNFL DEPTH
 4BQ  : BROADUS          3027 : DD241800/ 71 /  53 / 0.43 /  0.0 /   0
 EKLM8: EKALAKA          3425 : DD241656/ 66 /  45 / 0.39 /    M /   M
 MORM8: MOORHEAD 9NE     3220 : DD241800/ 68 /  51 / 0.15 /  0.0 /   0
 PLEM8: PLEVNA           2780 : DD241737/ 65 /  45 / 0.18 /    M /   M
 POWM8: POWDERVILLE 8NNE 2800 : DD241800/ 71 /  49 / 0.22 /  0.0 /   0

 :...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...
 :                              OBS TIME 24HR 24-HR 24-HR  24-HR  SNOW
 :ID    STATION          ELEV     DDHHNN HIGH  LOW   PCPN   SNFL DEPTH
 BYZ  : BILLINGS NWS     3185 : DD241800/ 59 /  52 / 1.13 /  0.0 /   0
 BWPM8: BILLINGS WTP     3097 : DD241500/ 69 /  54 / 0.47 /    M /   M
 COSM8: COLUMBUS         3602 : DD241800/ 57 /  51 / 0.50 /  0.0 /   0
 CKCM8: COOKE CITY 2W    7483 : DD241800/ 49 /  34 / 0.52 /  0.0 /   3
 GARM8: GARDINER         5275 : DD241800/ 53 /  45 / 0.40 /  0.0 /   0
 HDNM8: HARDIN           2905 : DD241800/ 62 /  53 / 0.55 /  0.0 /   0
 HYSM8: HYSHAM           2660 : DD241800/ 62 /  52 / 1.13 /  0.0 /   0
 NYEM8: NYE              4840 : DD241345/ 63 /  49 / 1.30 /    M /   M
 RPJM8: RAPELJE 4S       4125 : DD241800/ 60 /  51 / 1.27 /  0.0 /   0
 RELM8: RED LODGE        5600 : DD241700/ 51 /  44 / 0.76 /  0.0 /   0
 ROPM8: ROUNDUP          3227 : DD241700/ 65 /  53 / 1.05 /  0.0 /   0

 :...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...
 :                              OBS TIME 24HR 24-HR 24-HR  24-HR  SNOW
 :ID    STATION          ELEV     DDHHNN HIGH  LOW   PCPN   SNFL DEPTH
 CSEM8: CASCADE 20SSE    4600 : DD241700/ 60 /  39 / 0.60 /  0.0 /   0
 COUM8: CHOTEAU          3845 : DD241700/ 63 /  39 / 0.25 /  0.0 /   0
 GNSM8: GOLD BUTTE 7N    3498 : DD241800/ 55 /  39 / 0.66 /    M /   M
 GSSM8: GRASS RANGE      3490 : DD241800/ 59 /  49 / 0.44 /    M /   M
 GTFM8: GREAT FALLS CITY 3505 : DD241900/ 64 /  42 /    M /    M /   0
 HOBM8: HOBSON           4244 : DD241800/ 51 /  44 / 1.51 /  0.0 /   0
 MRTM8: MARTINSDALE 3NNW 4800 : DD241800/ 59 /  46 / 1.67 /    M /   M
 NHRM8: NEIHART 7NW      4945 : DD241715/ 59 /  41 / 1.07 /  0.0 /   0
 STNM8: STANFORD         4860 : DD241800/ 53 /  42 / 0.87 /    M /   M
 TNRM8: TURNER 11N       2982 : DD241600/ 58 /  51 / 0.69 /  0.0 /   0
 VLRM8: VALIER           3810 : DD241600/ 62 /  38 / 1.05 /  0.0 /   0
 WGSM8: WHITE SLPHR SPGS 5040 : DD241600/ 62 /  38 / 0.97 /  0.0 /   0

 :...SOUTHWEST MONTANA...
 :                              OBS TIME 24HR 24-HR 24-HR  24-HR  SNOW
 :ID    STATION          ELEV     DDHHNN HIGH  LOW   PCPN   SNFL DEPTH
 BOUM8: BOULDER          4904 : DD241600/ 63 /  38 / 0.61 /  0.0 /   0
 BZEM8: BOZEMAN MSU      4913 : DD241600/ 62 /  45 / 0.58 /  0.0 /   0
 DLLM8: DILLON WMU       5228 : DD241700/ 56 /  44 / 0.97 /    M /   M
 PHIM8: PHILLIPSBURG     5270 : DD241400/ 64 /  34 / 0.57 /  0.0 /   0
 TOWM8: TOWNSEND         3840 : DD241800/ 67 /  44 / 0.18 /    M /   M
 WISM8: WISDOM           6060 : DD241700/ 54 /  38 / 0.57 /    M /   M

 :...NORTHWEST MONTANA...
 :                              OBS TIME 24HR 24-HR 24-HR  24-HR  SNOW
 :ID    STATION          ELEV     DDHHNN HIGH  LOW   PCPN   SNFL DEPTH
 LYBM8: LIBBY 30SSE      3600 : DD241700/ 61 /  46 / 0.38 /  0.0 /   0
 LINM8: LINCOLN          4575 : DD241500/ 64 /  40 /    M /    M /   0
 PSNM8: POLSON           2990 : DD241600/ 60 /  48 / 0.20 /  0.0 /   0
 KERM8: POLSON KERR DAM  2730 : DD241700/ 61 /  48 / 0.25 /  0.0 /   0
 SELM8: SEELEY LAKE RS   4100 : DD241500/ 61 /  45 / 0.20 /  0.0 /   0
 SUPM8: SUPERIOR         2710 : DD241600/ 72 /  49 / 0.22 /    M /   M
 THOM8: THOMPSON FALLS   2380 : DD241600/ 65 /  41 / 0.18 /    M /   M
 TCRM8: TROUT CREEK 3NW  2356 : DD241400/ 68 /  48 / 0.20 /  0.0 /   0
 WGLM8: WEST GLACIER     3154 : DD241600/ 57 /  45 / 0.05 /    M /   M

 :THE FOLLOWING SECTION LISTS LOW TEMPERATURES FROM REPORTING STATIONS
 :ACROSS THE STATE THAT ONLY REPORT IN THE MORNING.

 :...NORTHEAST...SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...
 :                              OBS TIME 24HR 24-HR
 :ID    STATION          ELEV     DDHHNN HIGH  LOW
 WSBM8: WESTBY           2105 : DD240700/    /  39
 3HT  : HARLOWTON        4162 : DD240729/    /  48
 SBRM8: HUNTLEY          3000 : DD240800/    /  56
 TERM8: TERRY            2248 : DD240800/    /  50

 :...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...
 :                              OBS TIME 24HR 24-HR
 :ID    STATION          ELEV     DDHHNN HIGH  LOW
 CNKM8: CHINOOK          2420 : DD240625/    /  53
 DVNM8: DUNKIRK 19NNE    3323 : DD240800/    /  42
 FTBM8: FORT BENTON      2633 : DD240800/    /  54
 WRPM8: ROGERS PASS 9NNE 4200 : DD240800/    /  40
 RYDM8: RUDYARD 19S      2878 : DD240630/    /  53
 SLBM8: SHELBY           3325 : DD240900/    /  38
 VALM8: VALENTINE        2910 : DD240700/    /  57

 :...SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST MONTANA...
 :                              OBS TIME 24HR 24-HR
 :ID    STATION          ELEV     DDHHNN HIGH  LOW
 WYGM8: W YELLOWSTONE GT 6700 : DD240643/    /  32
 HGHM8: HUNGRY HORSE DAM 2940 : DD241000/    /  45
 OLNM8: OLNEY            3165 : DD240800/    /  42
 .END

 ...MONTANA TEMPERATURE EXTREMES...

 HIGH TEMP... 72 SUPERIOR

 LOW TEMP...  32 W YELLOWSTONE GT

 ...MONTANA MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION...

 MAX PRECIP...   2.56 BILLINGS AIRPORT

 MAX SNOW DEPTH...  3 COOKE CITY 2W
_________________________________________________________________
 FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1031 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA...

  GALLATIN RIVER NEAR LOGAN
  BIG HOLE RIVER NEAR MELROSE
  MISSOURI RIVER NEAR ULM
  DEARBORN RIVER NEAR CRAIG

.WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE WORK WEEK...MELTING
THE SNOWPACK AND CAUSING ADDITIONAL WATER IN RIVERS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MONATANA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH WATER FLOWING OVER THE ROAD.
THE LATEST STAGES AND FORECASTS FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS CAN BE FOUND
AT OUR WEB PAGE...WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS

___________________________________________________

1031 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
  THE MISSOURI RIVER AT ULM.
* FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING
  IS CANCELLED.
* AT 10:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.9 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON AND
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 14.4 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIVER
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

Flood Warning

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1137 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

MTC005-013-015-027-045-059-261400-
/O.EXT.KTFX.FA.W.0016.000000T0000Z-110526T1400Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1137 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
  BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...
  CASCADE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MONTANA...
  CHOUTEAU COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...
  FERGUS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MONTANA...
  JUDITH BASIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MONTANA...
  MEAGHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MONTANA

* UNTIL AT LEAST 800 AM MDT THURSDAY.

* PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
  THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
  FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. FLOODING CONDITIONS
  WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH LITTLE TO NO DECREASE IN RIVER LEVELS
  THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

* THE LATEST REPORTS OF FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED COUNTIES:

* IN CASCADE COUNTY...FLOODING OF BELT CREEK CONTINUES NEAR THE TOWN
  OF ARMINGTON...AFFECTING SEVERAL BUILDINGS AND HOMES. IN THE
  MONARCH AREA...HUGHESVILLE ROAD IS CLOSED. FLOODING ALSO CONTINUES
  ON THE SMITH RIVER 13 MILES SOUTH OF ULM. THE MISSOURI RIVER COULD
  BEGIN TO AFFECT LOW LYING AREAS IN THE CITY OF GREAT FALLS ALONG
  RIVER DRIVE SOUTH...BETWEEN THE CENTRAL AVENUE BRIDGE AND THIRD
  STREET SOUTH.

* IN CHOUTEAU COUNTY...FLOODING CONTINUES NEAR THE HIGHWOOD
  MOUNTAINS. UPPER HIGHWOOD CREEK ROAD IS CLOSED FROM BURLEY HILL
  ROAD TO THAIN CAMPGROUND.

* IN FERGUS COUNTY...NUMEROUS RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS ARE OUT OF
  THEIR BANKS. THE MISSOURI RIVER NEAR LANDUSKY REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD
  STAGE. AT 11 PM MONDAY EVENING...THE RIVER STAGE REMAINED STEADY
  AT AROUND 28.5 FEET...AND IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
  FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

* IN JUDITH BASIN COUNTY...FLOODING ON THE JUDITH RIVER...BEAVER
  CREEK...ROSS FORK CREEK...AND COTTON WOOD CREEK CONTINUE.
  ALSO...WATER WAS REPORTED RUNNING OVER WINDHAM-BENCHLAND
  ROAD...AND THAT NEARBY SAGE CREEK WAS RUNNING VERY HIGH.

* IN BLAINE COUNTY...FLOODING IS AFFECTING LOCATIONS AROUND HAYS AND
  LODGE POLE.

* IN MEAGHER COUNTY...FLOODING OF SPRING CREEK ROAD HAS BEEN
  REPORTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

A lot more snow to melt out of the mountains!

May 23, 2011

While we stay busy watching all the rivers, creeks and streams, at least the temperatures are staying cool. The biggest problem is the intense rain and warm temperatures during the evening hours.

We are weeks behind the time when the normal snow-melt should be taking place. If you plan to visit Glacier National Park, it will be a while before all the snow is plowed and melted.

High water everywhere. If you are near any rivers, streams or creeks be prepared for rising water.

NWS Flooding Watch/Warning Areas

Have a great evening!

Fred

More rain and more high water expected!

May 22, 2011

Another moist storm is expected Monday and Tuesday which will increase the run-off and flooding concerns.

The graphic from the National Weather Service tells the story. Be aware of rising streams, creeks and rivers!

BLAINE MT-CASCADE MT-CHOUTEAU MT-FERGUS MT-JUDITH BASIN MT-
MEAGHER MT-
431 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN MEAGHER...JUDITH BASIN...FERGUS...
CHOUTEAU...CASCADE AND BLAINE COUNTIES...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT FLOODING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ANY DECREASE IN RIVER LEVELS BEING VERY MINOR.

IN CASCADE COUNTY...FLOODING OF BELT CREEK...NEAR THE TOWN OF
ARMINGTON IS BEING REPORTED. THE RISING WATER HAS AFFECTED SEVERAL
BUILDINGS AND HOMES. IN THE MONARCH AREA...HUGHESVILLE ROAD HAS BEEN
CLOSED. FLOODING HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED ON THE SMITH RIVER 13 MILES
SOUTH OF ULM. THE MISSOURI RIVER COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT LOW LYING
AREAS IN THE CITY OF GREAT FALLS ALONG RIVER DRIVE SOUTH...BETWEEN
THE CENTRAL AVENUE BRIDGE AND 3RD STREET SOUTH.

IN CHOUTEAU COUNTY...REPORTS OF FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM
THE HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS. UPPER HIGHWOOD CREEK ROAD HAS BEEN CLOSED
FROM BURLEY HILL ROAD TO THAIN CAMPGROUND.

IN FERGUS COUNTY...THERE ARE NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES...AND SMALL
STREAMS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS. IN PARTICULAR US 191 IS CLOSED
BETWEEN LEWISTOWN AND HILGER...AT MILE MARKER 10. THE MISSOURI RIVER
NEAR LANDUSKY CONTINUES ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER STAGE WAS 27.4
FEET EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RISE TO AROUND 28 FEET THIS EVENING. AT 28 FEET...MOST OF JAMES KIPP
CAMPGROUND AND VICINITY WILL BE UNDER WATER.

IN JUDITH BASIN COUNTY...FLOODING ON THE JUDITH RIVER...BEAVER
CREEK...ROSS FORK CREEK...AND COTTON WOOD CREEK CONTINUE.
ADDITIONAL SMALL STREAMS SOUTH OF STANFORD ARE ALSO AT OR ABOVE
BANKFULL. NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN WASHED OUT OR ARE UNDER WATER
SOUTH OF STANFORD AND SOUTH OF HOBSON.

IN BLAINE COUNTY...FLOODING IS AFFECTING LOCATIONS AROUND HAYS AND
LODGE POLE...INCLUDING HIGHWAY 66. HIGHWAY 66 IS CLOSED FROM THE
INTERSECTION OF US 191 TO HAYS AND ALSO FROM HAYS TO HARLEM.
SEVERAL HOMES AND BUSINESSES HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY RISING WATER IN
THESE LOCATIONS. ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE EAST SIDE OF THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS.

IN MEAGHER COUNTY...FLOODING OF SPRING CREEK ROAD HAS BEEN REPORTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

Rain and flooding expected this weekend!

May 20, 2011

We must keep our guard up this weekend as rain is expected to continue through today and Saturday, and even a chance of additional rainfall on Sunday! That means the already saturated ground will not be able to absorb water as well as it would normally. Pay attention to rising creeks, streams and rivers as the rainfall continues to fall, even at higher elevations.

Here is a National Weather Service graphic with estimated rain totals, many areas will see well over an inch or two!

As you can see areas like Stanford, Lewistown and even Fort Benton could see some very heavy moisture. If you plan on being outdoors be careful of water covered roadways, rising creeks streams and rivers. Remember, if you see water of the roadway, turn around- don’t down!

Fred

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
  FERGUS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MONTANA...
  JUDITH BASIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MONTANA

* UNTIL 100 PM MDT SUNDAY

* AT 1100 AM MDT...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WAS
OCCURRING ACROSS FERGUS AND JUDITH BASIN COUNTIES. UP TO ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN SO FAR AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES
TROUGH SUNDAY. MINOR FLOODING WAS REPORTED ON BEAVER CREEK NEAR
LEWISTOWN AND THE JUDITH RIVER SOUTHWEST OF HOBSON.

SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE AND CAUSE AREA FLOODING.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ARE EXPECTED IN FERGUS
AND JUDITH BASIN COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THOSE WHO LIVE NEAR RIVERS OR STREAMS SHOULD EXPECT FLOODING
CONDITIONS...AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE A PROLONGED RAIN
EVENT...WITH THE RAINFALL CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THEREFORE...IN
LOCATIONS THAT FLOODING DEVELOPS...EXPECT THE WATER TO RECEDE SLOWLY.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

____________________________________________________________

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CHOUTEAU COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...

* UNTIL 1100 AM MDT SUNDAY.

* RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CHOUTEAU
COUNTY INTO SUNDAY. THE RAIN...COMBINED WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING
SNOW WILL LEAD TO FLOODING CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CHOUTEAU
COUNTY.

REPORTS OF FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM THE HIGHWOOD
MOUNTAINS...AS PORTIONS OF UPPER HIGHWOOD CREEK ROAD HAVE BEEN
CLOSED BECAUSE OF THE FLOODING.

OTHER SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE...FLOODING LOCATIONS NEAR THE WATER WAYS.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THOSE WHO LIVE NEAR RIVERS OR STREAMS SHOULD EXPECT FLOODING
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND BE PREPARED TO
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND ONCE FLOODING DEVELOPS.

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE A PROLONGED RAIN
EVENT...WITH THE RAINFALL CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THEREFORE...IN
LOCATIONS THAT FLOODING DEVELOPS...EXPECT THE WATER TO RECEDE SLOWLY.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW...AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.
___________________________________________________________________
HILL-CASCADE-BLAINE-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAVRE...GREAT FALLS...CHINOOK...
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...BOZEMAN...WEST YELLOWSTONE
1043 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND
  SOUTHWEST MONTANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN
  CENTRAL MONTANA...CASCADE. IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...BLAINE
  AND HILL. IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA...GALLATIN AND MEAGHER.

* THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

* PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
  THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
  BETWEEN 7000 AND 7500 FEET WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...SO RAIN
  WILL FALL ON MOUNTAIN SNOW PACK...CAUSING ACCELERATED SNOW MELT.
  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...SOILS ARE MOIST AND WILL BE UNABLE TO
  ABSORB ALL OF THE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.

* THE RUNOFF WILL SWELL STREAMS AND CREEKS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
  COMING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS...CAUSING FLOODED ROADS AND
  FIELDS. SOME ROADS MAY BECOME WASHED OUT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

Getting ready for substantial rainfall the next 72 hours!

May 19, 2011

The strong Pacific storm is bearing down on Montana and with it comes the potential for heavy rainfall at times, with the snow level very high, so the danger of rain on snow will only make the snow in the mountains melt faster.

Here is a snapshot of the state of Montana and then a NWS graphic that shows the potential rainfall amounts for our area. This could change in the next day with moisture shifting more to the west, but that information won’t be updated until overnight or Friday morning.

As the National Weather Service monitors this storm moving our way be prepared for rising creeks, stream and rivers. Here are a few highlights pasted along from the NWS after an early afternoon briefing today. Be careful around rivers, streams and creeks.

HILL-CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-BLAINE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAVRE...GREAT FALLS...BIG SANDY...
FORT BENTON...CHINOOK
1248 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2011

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL MONTANA...CASCADE.
  IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...BLAINE...CHOUTEAU AND HILL.

* FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT

* RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA
  EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH
  SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS STORM
  SYSTEM SO RAIN WILL FALL ON MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK CAUSING
  ACCELERATED SNOWMELT. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...SOILS ARE UNUSUALLY
  MOIST AND WILL BE UNABLE TO ABSORB THE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.

* THE RUNOFF WILL SWELL STREAMS AND CREEKS COMING OUT OF THE
  MOUNTAINS...CAUSING FLOODED ROADS AND FIELDS. SOME ROADS MAY
  BECOME WASHED OUT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.





Getting ready for a period of rain!

May 18, 2011

We started our nice and sunny this morning but by mid-day plenty of clouds have taken over the spotlight and removed our sunshine!

Sunny skies give way to clouds this afternoon!

Headed north out of Helena this morning in sunshine!

A large storm system affecting most of the western U.S. will bring us cool and unsettled weather through the weekend. Heavy rain, some thunderstorms are all possible. Even rain will end us as snow above 8,000′ feet. Temperatures will be a good 10 to 15 degrees below normal this weekend.

I hope you have a pleasant day!

Fred

Expected rain will only aggravate our flood situation.

May 17, 2011

Our temperatures have been cool enough and with very high moisture over the winter, Montana residents are facing high water problems this spring and early summer.

Yesterday the National Weather Service released a recent photo show the areas where snow exists and where it does not. The image includes a few clouds in eastern Montana, so don’t let that confuse you!

The red is snow while the blue is bare land

Our snow melting from the mountains has been slowed down because of cooler than normal weather, so much so that a lot of snow is yet to come out of the mountains.

So water experts are watching the state’s river, creeks and stream very carefully. Rain expected this week could only aggravate the situation even more.

Percent above normal. Note high moisture in east MT from last storm!

There is now the potential for even more rain in eastern Montana, an inch or two that will make things even worse for that part of the state.

A word to the wise, if you are outdoors around creeks and streams be aware of high water. Also if water covers the roadway, turn around, don’t drown. It only takes a foot of water to wash a vehicle off the roadway!

Fred