The timing is poor for those wanting to get out for the first “unofficial” day of some, the Memorial Day Weekend. Rain and cool weather will be in the way for everyone. Flooding concerns have closed many popular camping areas as well.
Here is what we are looking at for the weekend:
Check all river levels at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tfx
Two more systems are still forecast to impact the area bringing widespread precipitation Friday/Saturday and then Sunday/Monday. Snow levels continue to stay lower than they were earlier this week and could alleviate some flooding potential by limiting the amount of rain falling on the ripe snowpack.
* Heaviest precipitation period is expected with the Sunday/Monday system.
* Worse case scenario: Precipitation totals in excess of 1 inch of liquid on the high plains with up to 2.5 inches in the mountains along the Rocky Mountain Front. Central Montana mountains could see up to 2 inches.
* Most likely scenario: Precipitation totals 0.50 to 1 inch of liquid on the high plains with 1 to 2 inches along the Rocky Mountain Front and 1 to 1.5 inches over the Central Montana mountains.
* Some precipitation is expected to fall as snow over the mountains above about 5500 feet and will not cause as much runoff as an all rain scenario.
* Reservoirs are filling up and most reservoirs along the Rocky Mountain Front are full or will be filled by late this weekend based on current inflow rates.
NWS Glasgow Graphic
Missoula NWS Graphic
The latest pre-Memorial Day weekend storm system is continuing to push across the state with the Central and Eastern areas seeing the best bet for rain with some thunderstorms also possible this afternoon and tonight. Early this morning Great Falls saw about .15″ of rain at the airport.
Flooding concerns continue over a large area of the state through the Holiday weekend, rising water, plenty of rain and cool temperatures.
Overnight mostly cloudy with a low near 40 and gusty winds with a 40% chance of rain showers.
Friday cloudy and breezy with a 50% chance of rain showers. Wind gusts near 30 mph from the southwest.
Saturday cloudy with an 80% chance or rain and thunderstorms. The high only 50 degrees and still breezy.
Sunday partly sunny with a 50/50 chance of showers and warmer with a high in the upper 50’s.
Memorial Day mostly cloudy with rain likely and a high in the upper 50’s.
By Tuesday we dry out, the sun returns and the temperature climbs to the mid and upper 60’s.
Be sure and check the road report on our website frequently and please be very careful around water this weekend. Normally small streams have turned into rivers, closing many campgrounds for the weekend as well.
Have a good evening!
WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1248 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2011
…THE FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS…
BIG HOLE RIVER NEAR MELROSE
GALLATIN RIVER NEAR LOGAN
MISSOURI RIVER NEAR ULM
.WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND…MELTING THE SNOWPACK AND CAUSING ADDITIONAL WATER IN RIVERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
TURN AROUND DON’T… DROWN. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH WATER FLOWING OVER THE ROAD.
THE LATEST STAGES AND FORECASTS FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS CAN BE FOUND AT OUR WEB PAGE…WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS
1248 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2011
…FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING…THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER AT ULM.
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING…OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 12:00 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST…THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 14.4 FEET BY
SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY EVENING.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 AM MDT THU MAY 26 2011
BLAINE MT-CASCADE MT-CHOUTEAU MT-FERGUS MT-JUDITH BASIN MT-MEAGHER MT-
520 AM MDT THU MAY 26 2011
…THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL AT LEAST 800 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN MEAGHER…JUDITH BASIN…FERGUS…CHOUTEAU…CASCADE AND BLAINE COUNTIES…
* PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS…POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES…WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS WEEKEND. FLOODING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME WITH LITTLE OR NO DECREASE IN RIVER LEVELS EXPECTED.
* REPORTS OF FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED COUNTIES INCLUDE …BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:
* IN CASCADE COUNTY…FLOODING OF BELT CREEK CONTINUES NEAR THE TOWN OF ARMINGTON. IN THE MONARCH AREA HUGHESVILLE ROAD IS CLOSED.
FLOODING ALSO CONTINUES ON THE SMITH RIVER SOUTH OF ULM. THE MISSOURI RIVER MAY SOON AFFECT LOW LYING AREAS IN THE CITY OF GREAT FALLS ALONG RIVER DRIVE SOUTH… BETWEEN THE CENTRAL AVENUE BRIDGE AND THIRD STREET SOUTH.
* IN CHOUTEAU COUNTY…FLOODING CONTINUES NEAR THE HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS…AS UPPER HIGHWOOD CREEK ROAD IS CLOSED FROM BURLEY HILL ROAD TO THAIN CAMPGROUND.
* IN FERGUS COUNTY…NUMEROUS RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS…INCLUDING BIG SPRING CREEK …BEAVER CREEK…AND COTTONWOOD CREEK. THE MISSOURI RIVER NEAR LANDUSKY REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE…AND IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
* IN JUDITH BASIN COUNTY…FLOODING ON THE JUDITH RIVER…WILLIAMS CREEK…AND ROSS FORK CREEK CONTINUES. ALSO…WATER WAS REPORTED RUNNING OVER WINDHAM-BENCHLAND ROAD…AND NEARBY SAGE CREEK WAS RUNNING VERY HIGH.
* IN BLAINE COUNTY…FLOODING IS AFFECTING LOCATIONS AROUND HAYS AND LODGE POLE.
* IN MEAGHER COUNTY…FLOODING HAS CLOSED BOTH SPRING CREEK ROAD AND NEWLAN CREEK ROAD.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE…TURN AROUND…DONT DROWN.
TO REPORT FLOODING…HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.